The Chinese government has long been concerned about public concerns about domestic air pollution. In the government report made in the autumn of 2014, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that China must “declare war on pollutionâ€.
U.S. News and World Report website published an analysis article on January 17th by Keith Crane, director of the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Department at Rand Corporation, saying that our research shows that if China invests 215 billion U.S. dollars in pollution control every year, pollution problems in China can be greatly reduced. With ease, productivity will increase, countless people will no longer be troubled by lung diseases, and many people’s lives will be saved.
Of course, 215 billion U.S. dollars is not a small amount, but it is not much more than the impact of air pollution on the Chinese economy. It is estimated that the harm to human health caused by air pollution and the loss of labor productivity cost accounts for 6.5% of China's GDP. The GDP of 8.2 trillion U.S. dollars in 2012 means that reducing the level of air pollution in China to an acceptable level for the World Health Organization will bring China more than 500 billion U.S. dollars in annual returns.
The first step, but also the highest rate of return, is to replace natural gas and commercial gas with natural gas instead of coal. Boilers and stoves that use coal, wood, or waste for fuel can cause pollution. The harm caused by these sources of pollution to the health and life expectancy of Chinese (especially northerners) has long been well documented. The implementation of this solution only costs US$320-520 billion a year and it seems to be very cost-effective.
The second step, China will pay a higher price, that is, shut down half of the coal-fired power plants, replaced by greener power generation technology, such as using natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy as fuel.
Coal-fired power generation has been the most important power generation method in China. In recent years, the proportion of coal-fired power generation has reached 79%. In contrast, only 40% of electricity in the United States comes from coal-fired power generation. In order to achieve a healthy air quality, China must replace a large number of coal-fired power plants, especially coal-fired power plants located in or around large populous cities.
If coal-fired power generation is replaced by renewable energy or nuclear power, the annual cost will be approximately $184 billion. However, shutting down these inefficient coal-fired power plants will enable all people to inhale less than 25% of fine particulate matter and sulfur dioxide.
The third step is to scrap the so-called "yellow" motor vehicles as soon as possible. China is already working hard on this. More than one-third of the yellow-labeled vehicles on the road in 2012 are expected to be scrapped by the end of 2015. However, the government should also implement this plan as soon as possible through the repurchase program. The program has been successfully piloted in Dongguan.
At present, there are 14 million vehicles that have basic pollution control equipment or no vehicles at all in China. If these vehicles were eliminated in 2009, then China's motor vehicles will emit 70% less carbon monoxide, 70% volatile hydrocarbons, 61% nitrogen oxides, and 76% particulate matter. The one-time cost of eliminating high-pollution vehicles is between 210-42 billion U.S. dollars.
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