Domestic oil prices may usher in the first cut in the year in late May. According to the data of the commodity e-commerce platform Treasure Island, as of April 30, the rate of change in oil prices in the three international markets has reached -2.61%. Around May 10, the rate of change in oil prices in the three places may continue to expand to -3.6% to -3.8%. If international oil prices continue to slump in the next few days, the rate of change in oil prices in the three regions will exceed -4% in late May, which means domestic Oil prices will be the first opportunity to cut this year.
On May 1, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) June light crude oil futures price rose 1.29 US dollars, to close at 106.16 US dollars per barrel, or 1.2%, the highest closing price of the main contract in 5 weeks. However, due to the impact of poor economic data in the United States, international oil prices have been in the downward trend in late April, and the rate of change in international oil prices has continued to fall. The rate of change in international oil prices continued to fall from -1.5% on April 20 to the current -2.6%.
Affected by the decline in the external disk, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil prices continued to fall for a month.
According to data from Treasure Island, since March 20, the national wholesale price of 93# gasoline has dropped from 10,380 yuan / ton to 10,260 yuan / ton at the end of April, down 120 yuan / ton; 0# diesel national wholesale The average price was lowered from 9,060 yuan / ton to 8,860 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton.
It is understood that the last time the domestic refined oil price was adjusted to 0:00 on March 20, the domestic gasoline and diesel price was raised by 600 yuan per ton, and the Beijing 93# gasoline price was raised to 8.33 yuan / liter, breaking the 8 yuan mark. Domestic oil prices have been raised twice in the year, and gasoline and diesel prices have been raised by 900 yuan/ton.
According to the previous National Development and Reform Commission's previous adjustment method for domestic refined oil prices, when the international oil price change rate reaches 4% or more for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic refined oil price can be adjusted. At present, the conditions for the last price adjustment of 22 working days have been met, but the rate of change of the three places has reached more than 4%.
However, some analysts believe that the trend of international oil prices will be crucial in the next few days. If the international oil price continues to move upwards, the oil price change rate of the three places may be around -3.8%, and the oil price will be delayed. The down window is coming. In addition, since the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly stressed that it has intentionally controlled the increase in oil prices, even if the oil price is lowered, the downward adjustment will not be very large, and may only be around 0.2 yuan / liter.
analysis
The downward adjustment of oil prices will help introduce new pricing mechanisms
Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly stated its position. When the international oil price is relatively low, it will be a good time to introduce a new pricing mechanism. Some analysts are optimistic. If the domestic oil price is lowered in May, the pricing mechanism will also usher in a breakthrough.
The so-called new pricing mechanism is that the frequency of domestic oil price adjustment will be shortened from the current 22 working days (1 month) to about 2 weeks.
According to this logic, if the international oil price is in the downward channel, the introduction of this mechanism will mean that the frequency of domestic oil price reduction will be accelerated, and the public's doubts about the “up and down†of oil prices will be swept away.
In this regard, Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan is not optimistic. Han Jingyuan said: "Because the domestic oil price was raised on March 20, the National Development and Reform Commission has already stated that it has controlled the domestic oil price increase. After the upward adjustment, the domestic oil price corresponding to the domestic refined oil price is only around 80 US dollars, and the international oil price gap remains at that time. Very big."
Some analysts who do not want to be named pointed out that this means that, in the view of oil companies, the current domestic refined oil prices are still low, and the international gap is still very large. If new pricing mechanisms are implemented on this basis, Synchronizing with international oil prices to speed up the adjustment is an unwillingness for oil companies to see.
The data shows that although the domestic refined oil price has been raised by 900 yuan per ton in the first quarter, the quarterly reports of the two major oil companies still show that their refining business has suffered a serious loss. Sinopec's refining loss in the first quarter was 9.172 billion yuan. PetroChina also showed in the first quarter that although the refining business improved compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the refining business in the first quarter still lost 10.402 billion yuan.
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