The data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Sunday showed that in May this year, the import volume of natural rubber (hereinafter referred to as “Tianjinâ€) rose sharply by 50% compared with the same period of last year, and the amount of natural rubber in the first five months also increased by 7.4%. .
In contrast, China’s tire production in the first four months of this year only increased by 2.2% over the same period of last year. As the main raw material for tires, why is the increase in imports of natural rubber far higher than the increase in tire production?
Speculative trading boosts imports of natural rubber
According to Mr. Zou, an analyst at Treasure Island, there are two types of rubber: latex and dry glue. The latex is liquid and the dry rubber is blocky. At least 80% of dry rubber is used on tires.
"There are too many traders doing import business now. The natural rubber stock in our bonded area has been very high for this period of time." A senior executive of Qingdao Runlian Rubber Company, which is engaged in natural rubber business, observed that there are a large number of goods currently in the bonded zone. Within, it may be the main reason for the significant increase in natural rubber imports.
“I remember low stocks in 2010. At the end of the month, stocks have come up again, reaching 200,000 tons.†He said that when the stocks of natural rubber were high, the stocks at the end of the month in the bonded zone were once as high as 250,000 tons. Slipped to 100,000 tons, and natural rubber imports are on the rise, "these two points show that the real demand for tires has not risen, it is estimated that some people are doing speculative trading." The above high-level said.
He said that many traders have seen this characteristic of huge fluctuations in natural rubber prices, and they will feel that this market is more profitable, and they have entered in 2012.
The prices of natural rubber have fluctuate greatly, and its pattern of big rises and falls has made other chemicals hard to beat. Taking Indonesia No. 20 rubber as an example, it once rose to US$5,600/ton in February 2011, but then dropped sharply to US$3,200/ton in December 2011. Although it has risen to US$3,900/ton between January and February of this year, it now continues to fall back to the level of November to December of last year.
“Natural rubber is not only a product that can do more, but it can be short.†Mr. Zou said, “Assuming that a trader entered a batch of 1 million US dollars worth of natural rubber in May 2012, its import price was 24,000 yuan per ton. The batch of natural rubber will be delivered at a price of 23,000 yuan / ton in July and then he can sell it for 23,000 yuan in June (a loss of 1,000 yuan / ton), until August natural rubber continues to fall to 2 million yuan will be bought back in stock and will be delivered in the current month's futures, so that it can also be arbitraged by 1,000 yuan per ton.†Mr. Zou pointed out that if natural rubber is rising in the next few months, it does not matter, those who are short You can continue to do more and you can make money as well.
Therefore, in fact, some people did not sell natural rubber directly to the tire factory at the import price plus taxes, logistics, and labor. Instead, they “dumped and dumped†in the middle, causing the import volume of natural rubber to increase.
Tire enterprise purchases may have improved
According to a number of sources in the industry, the domestic authorities concerned have severely cracked down on natural rubber smuggling, and the amount of smuggled natural rubber has dropped sharply. It is estimated that 300,000 to 400,000 tons of natural rubber also need to be declared and entered domestically. Promote the current natural rubber imports increased.
The above-mentioned senior executives of Qingdao Runlian Rubber Company also pointed out that there is a certain lag in the import volume of natural rubber in May. If we want to see whether the import volume of natural rubber is in line with the production demand of tires, we still need to wait for the full year figures of the two types of products.
He explained that the amount of natural rubber imported in May reflects the purchase of overseas natural rubber by domestic traders in March this year.
“Some tire companies observed that natural rubber fell sharply last year. They also feared that if they purchased natural rubber futures, there would be great risks. During the Chinese New Year period (February and February), the tire companies did not have any stock of natural rubber. After the Spring Festival, tire companies began to gradually purchase orders, so the amount of natural rubber purchased in May also increased.
A management team of LANXESS Group, which produces synthetic rubber, said that according to forecast, the annual global tire production in 2015 will reach about 2 billion pieces, and this number will be about 1.6 billion pieces in 2011, meaning that the output of the entire tire industry will be in the future. It will increase by about 25% in three years. "So, tire demand will continue to rise, but in recent years, the increase is still rising steadily and will not increase substantially."
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