From July 1 this year, the operation of non-compliant vehicle transporters will be completely banned. As an alternative to the non-compliant carriages, the Zhongxing axles are facing unprecedented historical opportunities.
So, how much fire is there in the central axle car market? What is the impact of the implementation of the replacement policy? When will the fiery market last? Recently, the first commercial vehicle network interviewed the relevant leaders of Changjiu Group, GAC Hino, and SAIC Hongyan, a total of three mid-axle carriage manufacturers. In 2018, there is much fire in the car market. See the first commercial vehicle network. Reports.
Orders continue to grow and replacements are not completed
How much fire is currently in the mid-axle car market?
"In short supply, we have been scheduled for August."
"The market is very hot this year. I don't expect to return to rationality until next year."
“The market continues to grow, and the Zhongxue axle cab has become a very important section of SAIC Hongyan.â€
The above are the heads of the longevity group's marketing department, GAC Hino's special car related technical personnel and SAIC's Hongyan marketing deputy director Jiang Jianhua said. From this point of view, the fiery level of the central axle car market is evident.
In 2018, just half past the time, GAC Hino has already received orders for the same year last year. “Our last year’s sales of the Zhongxing axles were about 1,000 vehicles. We have already received about 1,000 orders so far this year.†The technician said that he expects GAC Nisshin to use the axles for the year. The sales of the car will exceed 1,200 vehicles.
Companies in the same situation also have long-term group. The long-term group's sales volume last year was about 3,000 units. So far this year, it has sold more than 2,000 center-mounted axle cars, and there are seven or eight hundred orders. The production period has been scheduled for August. "In fact, the market in the first quarter of this year was also faint. It was hot in the second quarter. The orders we received now are over 100 large orders. Many logistics companies have come to urge the cars, but our production capacity is limited. At present, the row has been scheduled for August, said the head of the long-term group's marketing department. Moreover, before the July 1st deadline, some logistics companies could not complete the vehicle replacement.
In fact, the other two responsible persons interviewed by Xiaobian also hold the same view. GAC Hino technicians said: "Before July 1, many logistics companies will not complete the replacement. Logistics companies are now actively reserve the capacity of the central axle car, but these capacity is not enough compared to market demand. This is also understandable, because the replacement of vehicles should be a gradual process, and many logistics companies are also waiting to see, afraid that the investment will be too big, can not return."
SAIC Hongyan Jiang Jianhua mainly considered the implementation of the policy. “The center axle cab has many advantages compared to the previous cabs, but it is too costly to allow logistics companies to scrap all the non-compliant cabs, so there are many logistics companies waiting to see We will see how the implementation of the policy will be implemented after July 1.†Jiang Jianhua believes that the market for the cabling vehicle is definitely growing, but the implementation of the policy will have a great impact on sales this year if it is not strictly enforced. In the next few years, steady growth will be achieved; if the implementation is large and the market is relatively standardized, then explosive growth will occur in the second half of this year and will continue until next year.
Total replacement or over 70,000 hot markets will continue throughout the year
Before July 1, many logistics companies were affected by the halving of the national purchase tax policy and enforcement issues. The market's demand for the central axle cab was not fully released.
Actually, we can make a rough calculation. After a cab was pulled by 12 cars and replaced by a mid-axis axle, a car can only pull 8 or 9 cars, so the original 40,000 cars were The workload of the trucks now needs to be completed by 70,000 vehicles, which means that the current market needs 70,800 mid-axle carriages to replace the previous 40,000 or so non-compliant vehicles. That's right, the replacement ratio is not 1:1, so the replacement pressure is even greater, and the market in the first half of the year will be even more popular. According to the experts of GAC Hino’s special-purpose vehicle division, there is still a very big gap in the mid-axis axle cabling market. Normally, the market will focus on replacing the minor upsurge in the second half of the year, but such a big gap depends on this year alone. One year is not enough.
The relevant person in charge of the longevity group marketing department also expressed almost the same view: “The market needs 70,80,000 mid-shaft cabs, but the production capacity of the cabs is limited. Even if the next company firepower Fully open, the annual production and sales volume is only 30,000 to 40,000. Even if this year's sales can reach 50,000 vehicles, there are still more than 20,000 shortages, so the hot market will certainly continue until the first half of next year. He also revealed that the sales volume of the car was between 6,000 and 7,000 vehicles last year. It should be able to soar five times this year, reaching 30,000 or even 40,000.
The sales volume of 30,000 to 40,000 vehicles in the whole year coincides with the forecast of the market by GAC Hino. The technician also believes that the replacement of the car can be completed at the end of this year, and the annual sales should be 30,000. Between 40,000 vehicles.
Although SAIC Hongyan Jiang Jianhua did not make specific predictions on the market, he also believes that as long as the policy is highly projected, the market will surely usher in rapid growth and will continue until next year. “There is not a large total market for coaches and the competition is fierce. The number of sales that can be achieved throughout the year is not a good forecast. The sources of growth in the market for chauffeur trucks are the normal replacement of old vehicles and the increase in market size. There is also a third point, that is, the policy is favorable, and all non-compliant vehicles are to be eliminated. If the policy is implemented with great intensity, the impact of the third point will be much greater than the first and second points, and the market for the chariots will also be complete. It may be suddenly bloated for this reason."
In short, the mid-axis axle car market in the second half of this year will continue to be hot, and its fiery level will be affected by the implementation of the policy. If the implementation is large, this market may reach an unprecedented level of enthusiasm, and will continue until The first half of next year.
Conclusion:
In a few days, we will enter July. What will happen to the policy of non-compliant vehicles that cannot be on the road? If it is completely on the ground, companies that have already completed the replacement of the central axle cab will earn a fortune in this market with insufficient capacity; if they cannot fully land, the logistics companies on the sidelines will be able to respond more flexibly. Policy changes.
When a policy is implemented, different people make different choices. Is it rainy, or can you seize the market opportunity? What will happen to the real situation?
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