The main factors affecting the medium and heavy truck industry are:
I. Positive factors 1. A large number of railway, highway and infrastructure construction projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission at the end of 2014 provide certain guarantees for infrastructure investment and downstream heavy truck demand in 2015.
2. The greatest benefit of infrastructure construction is “One Belt, One Roadâ€;
The “Belt and Road†is the most promising economic belt in the world. In 2015, the relevant infrastructure will enter the substantive implementation stage.
3. The continuous increase and construction of the free trade zone; in addition to the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the second batch of free trade zones in Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian, the third batch of free trade park application preparations have been opened, currently located in the central and western Wuhan, Xi'an, Chongqing, Chengdu and Lanzhou are actively seeking to enter the third batch of free trade zones. The gradual increase in the free trade zone will lead to great development in the foreign trade and logistics industries in these regions, and will gradually benefit the heavy truck and tractor industry.
4. Key urban agglomerations, integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; key urban agglomerations, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration include major major mineral provinces and strong logistics provinces, and heavy trucks in these regions will still maintain rigid demand.
5. The rapid development of logistics and shackles; In 2014, China's “Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Logistics Industry†was promulgated, and logistics and transportation will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future, and the transportation will continue to develop with more and more favorable policies. Both sides benefit the tractor industry.
6. The elimination of the yellow label car will be a highlight in 2015, which will have a positive driving effect on the segmented markets such as muck trucks and port tractors.
2. Unfavorable factors 1. The macro economy is in a downturn. Many institutions predict that China's GDP growth rate will be 7% in 2015.
2. The prospect of the real estate industry is difficult to predict; after the downturn in 2014, it is expected that the real estate industry will not recover quickly in the short term, which is not conducive to the heavy truck industry to a certain extent.
3. Coal production declined; coal production in many provinces declined in 2014. Some provinces have determined to reduce coal production in 2015, and the demand for heavy trucks has decreased.
4. Gas and oil prices are unstable; despite the fall in oil prices in 2014, future price instability factors still exist, and the heavy truck market is always in a certain degree.
5. The national four emission standards are implemented nationwide.
In summary, in 2015, heavy-duty truck enterprises should grasp several key words—emission upgrade, logistics vehicle, high horsepower, lightweight, intelligent, platform resource integration; pay attention to industry hotspot events—National Four implementation, Huang Marking vehicle management, industry standard upgrade, logistics planning, land and sea silk road, integration, urban agglomeration, etc.
Based on the above analysis, the Land Alliance recommends medium and heavy truck enterprises: digest inventory as soon as possible, change old marketing models, focus on improving service quality, upgrade technology, follow up market changes, accelerate key regional layout, and grasp market segment opportunities.
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