This article focuses on the impact of the Fourth National Standard on heavy-duty diesel engines and commercial vehicles, and believes that SCR technology is the dominant product. After 13 years of sales, the entire vehicle and engine sales were high and low. Diesel engine manufacturers have their own advantages and parts and components companies benefit greatly. At present, the emission standards for heavy-duty diesel engines for commercial vehicles have been implemented to the third stage of the country. After the national four-phase standards are postponed, it is likely to be fully implemented on July 1, 2013. The National IV standard for light diesel vehicles will be implemented in parallel with heavy-duty diesel engines. Light-duty gasoline vehicles have already fully implemented the national four-phase standard in July 2011.
The reasons for the delay in the implementation of the fourth national government are:
1) Inadequate technology reserves: If the original national plan was implemented in 2010, some diesel engine manufacturers could not complete the technical upgrade in time;
2) Users are highly cost-sensitive: Commercial vehicles that meet the National IV standards are often required to increase the cost of one to several tens of thousands of yuan, and users do not accept it highly;
3) Low fuel quality: China's diesel standard lags behind and severely constrains the use of State IV technology.
Technical line: China's heavy-duty diesel engines for commercial vehicles will use SCR (selective catalytic reduction) technology as the mainstream route. The SCR technology can maintain the No. 3 ontology structure, and has the advantages of good fuel economy, lower oil requirements, and easier subsequent upgrades. However, the EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) technology route also has some advantages. It does not require high levels of infrastructure such as urea filling stations, so it will coexist with SCR technology for a long time.
Market impact: For heavy-duty commercial vehicles and diesel engines, according to the experience of implementation of State III standards around 2008, due to cost differences, it is expected that in 2012-2014, the domestic commercial vehicle and heavy-duty diesel engine market will also show significant front-to-back low, Then gradually recover the trend. This difference is even more apparent for light commercial vehicles with relatively low prices. Therefore, the implementation of the Fourth National Standard will drive the upgrading of the light truck market, but its short-term impact on sales will be small.
Diesel Engine Manufacturers: Domestic major diesel engine manufacturers have already launched a series of four engines to prepare for the forthcoming implementation of the National IV standard. Major domestic diesel engine manufacturers either rely on the SCR route or adopt the same route as SCR and EGR. Only Shanghai Hino Motors mainly uses EGR. In general, domestic diesel engine manufacturers tend to SCR technology, and do not completely abandon EGR.
The parts benefited more: The SCR package system did not exist in the country's third and earlier diesel engines.
Therefore, the popularity of SCR technology will introduce many new parts and components, and corresponding parts suppliers will benefit greatly. Diesel emission treatment systems, especially SCR technology barriers are high and there will not be too many suppliers in the short term. Companies such as Weifu Hi-Tech, Pageli, and Silver Wheel have access to a larger portion of their market share, and thus become beneficiaries of the implementation of the National IV.
It is believed that the possibility of timely implementation by the State Fourth will be greater, and the technical route will be dominated by SCR. Therefore, the main beneficiary companies are companies focusing on SCR, represented by Weifu Hi-Tech and Weichai Power. Weifu Hi-Tech not only has the technical advantages and market share of SCR, but also has the technical advantages of high pressure common rail. Weichai Power is fully stocked on SCR engines and has the largest market share in the engine sector.
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